The role of education in shaping meritocratic beliefs in Italy: understanding the interplay between perceptions and preferences over time

Despite extensive empirical evidence underscoring the influence of socio-economic background and structural barriers on educational outcomes, there remains widespread support for education-based meritocracy as a fair and just societal model. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) on social inequalities, this study examines trends in meritocratic beliefs of the Italian population over recent decades. By distinguishing between descriptive meritocracy (how people perceive its realization) and prescriptive meritocracy (how they desire its implementation), the research explores the individual and contextual factors influencing these beliefs, with a particular focus on educational attainment. The findings indicate that education is considered the most important factor for achieving success in Italy and is increasingly viewed as a key criterion for determining individual earnings. At the same time, the results indicate an increasing awareness of non-meritocratic factors, such as family background and social discrimination, which can act as barriers to individual achievement. Ordinal logistic regression analysis identifies educational attainment as a significant predictor of meritocratic beliefs, while also demonstrating how preferences for an education-based meritocracy influence perceptions of its actual realization. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of individual adherence to meritocratic ideals in Italy.